Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 574 at 07:11 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–19%.

Safest bet that day UA 574 ORD 07:11 → LAS 09:19 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest F9 3647 ORD 13:26 → LAS 15:45 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 574 United Flight history →	ORD 07:11	LAS 09:19	5%	2%	0.5%	97%
AA 2169 American	ORD 06:51	LAS 09:02	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 2811 United	ORD 09:20	LAS 11:10	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 1803 United	ORD 10:53	LAS 12:45	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 1875 United Flight history →	ORD 15:54	LAS 17:57	11%	3%	0.5%	75%
UA 365 United	ORD 16:50	LAS 18:53	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 704 United	ORD 13:41	LAS 15:34	13%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 777 United Flight history →	ORD 20:25	LAS 22:24	13%	3%	0.6%	76%
UA 1703 United	ORD 18:13	LAS 20:09	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 1497 American	ORD 10:00	LAS 11:56	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 3323 American Flight history →	ORD 20:53	LAS 22:55	19%	5%	0.7%	58%
F9 2145 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 00:14	LAS 02:26	19%	5%	1.3%	63%
AA 1475 American	ORD 13:45	LAS 15:50	19%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 3292 American Flight history →	ORD 17:31	LAS 19:29	19%	6%	0.7%	58%
F9 3647 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 13:26	LAS 15:45	22%	7%	1.2%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON