Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 21%, against 10% on a calm day. Safest: UA 2280 at 07:20, 7%.

Safest bet that day UA 2280 ORD 07:20 → MCO 11:15 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 1247 ORD 15:08 → MCO 18:52 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Weather 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2280 United Flight history →	ORD 07:20	MCO 11:15	7%	2%	0.8%	89%
UA 2008 United Flight history →	ORD 11:00	MCO 15:03	9%	3%	0.9%	75%
UA 1643 United Flight history →	ORD 09:12	MCO 13:13	9%	2%	0.9%	85%
AA 1564 American	ORD 07:00	MCO 10:53	10%	3%	1.2%	no record
AA 3293 American	ORD 11:21	MCO 14:59	14%	3%	1.9%	no record
UA 617 United	ORD 20:16	MCO 00:04	18%	10%	0.9%	no record
AA 486 American Flight history →	ORD 11:52	MCO 15:32	18%	5%	2.7%	46%
UA 1929 United	ORD 15:31	MCO 19:16	23%	10%	1.2%	no record
UA 2620 United	ORD 13:06	MCO 16:56	24%	7%	1.3%	no record
F9 3044 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 17:13	MCO 21:25	24%	12%	5.1%	73%
AA 3176 American Flight history →	ORD 20:02	MCO 23:43	27%	10%	2.3%	53%
UA 2294 United	ORD 18:42	MCO 22:19	33%	13%	1.2%	no record
UA 2654 United	ORD 14:42	MCO 18:23	37%	10%	1.2%	no record
AA 1247 American Flight history →	ORD 15:08	MCO 18:52	37%	9%	2.7%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON