Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 7–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 4344 ORD 08:09 → MEM 09:56 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2317 ORD 21:20 → MEM 23:21 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4344 Republic	ORD 08:09	MEM 09:56	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 3959 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 08:03	MEM 09:45	8%	2%	0.6%	95%
AA 3945 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 22:30	MEM 00:18	10%	2%	0.7%	71%
UA 5593 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 09:00	MEM 11:05	10%	3%	0.5%	78%
YX 4594 Republic	ORD 16:46	MEM 18:33	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 5414 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 12:40	MEM 14:42	14%	4%	0.6%	72%
OO 6042 SkyWest	ORD 15:33	MEM 17:26	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 2317 United Flight history →	ORD 21:20	MEM 23:21	16%	5%	0.7%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON