Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 4162 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 4162 ORD 08:15 → MSP 10:01 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 1048 ORD 22:37 → MSP 00:09 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4162 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 08:15	MSP 10:01	6%	1%	0.6%	91%
DL 2028 Delta	ORD 06:17	MSP 07:48	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 2232 United Flight history →	ORD 07:00	MSP 08:41	6%	2%	0.5%	89%
UA 2805 United Flight history →	ORD 08:50	MSP 10:36	7%	2%	0.5%	89%
DL 724 Delta	ORD 09:52	MSP 11:26	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
MQ 4228 Envoy	ORD 15:14	MSP 16:50	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 1567 Delta Flight history →	ORD 12:27	MSP 14:10	10%	3%	0.5%	67%
UA 215 United Flight history →	ORD 10:28	MSP 12:04	12%	2%	0.5%	79%
DL 1533 Delta Flight history →	ORD 15:55	MSP 17:40	12%	3%	0.6%	62%
MQ 3551 Envoy	ORD 08:28	MSP 09:51	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 2005 United Flight history →	ORD 19:57	MSP 21:41	14%	4%	0.5%	58%
UA 2298 United Flight history →	ORD 14:30	MSP 16:13	15%	4%	0.5%	74%
DL 1306 Delta Flight history →	ORD 17:54	MSP 19:31	15%	5%	0.6%	51%
UA 467 United Flight history →	ORD 15:09	MSP 16:42	18%	4%	0.5%	70%
AA 2448 American	ORD 11:53	MSP 13:32	18%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 2865 United Flight history →	ORD 19:01	MSP 20:28	20%	5%	0.5%	54%
AA 2472 American	ORD 16:27	MSP 18:07	21%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 1935 United Flight history →	ORD 15:52	MSP 17:20	22%	4%	0.5%	70%
AA 1048 American	ORD 22:37	MSP 00:09	24%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON