Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, UA 2492 at 11:02, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


UA 2492 United	ORD 11:02	PNS 13:21	16%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORD 06:35 → ATL 09:37DL 1247	3h 13m Atlanta	ATL 12:50 → PNS 13:00DL 1640	6h 25m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 10:39 → PNS 10:51DL 3198	5h 21m	99%	85%
American Details →	ORD 05:07 → CLT 08:10AA 2842	2h 04m Charlotte	CLT 10:14 → PNS 11:04AA 2476	5h 57m	98%	85%
United Details →	ORD 07:05 → DEN 08:55UA 1217	2h 29m Denver	DEN 11:24 → PNS 15:22UA 1891	8h 17m	99%	84%
American Details →	ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30AA 760	1h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:04 → PNS 10:58AA 3982 · flown by Envoy	5h 58m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	ORD 11:20 → ATL 14:25DL 1147	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 16:48 → PNS 17:03DL 2211	5h 43m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	ORD 13:44 → ATL 16:54DL 2894	3h 51m Atlanta	ATL 20:45 → PNS 20:58DL 3021	7h 14m	99%	80%
American Details →	ORD 06:04 → DFW 08:36AA 2896	2h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:58 → PNS 12:54AA 3243	6h 50m	98%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON