Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 694 at 07:24 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 694 ORD 07:24 → SAV 10:37 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1191 ORD 16:44 → SAV 20:02 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 694 United	ORD 07:24	SAV 10:37	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
YX 4489 Republic	ORD 09:43	SAV 13:01	10%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 1612 United Flight history →	ORD 10:53	SAV 14:08	11%	2%	0.7%	94%
MQ 4054 Envoy	ORD 08:08	SAV 11:14	11%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 3496 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 18:20	SAV 21:56	16%	5%	0.9%	71%
UA 1191 United	ORD 16:44	SAV 20:02	22%	4%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON