tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via Denver, leaving 16:12, is the safest bet: 70% chance of reaching Santa Barbara on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1008 United Flight history → ORD 08:45 SBA 11:25 12% 3% 0.3% 75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Barbara on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Barbara is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ORD 06:00 → DEN 07:42UA 2806 3h 44m Denver DEN 11:26 → SBA 13:02UA 671 9h 02m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → ORD 06:10 → SFO 08:47UA 246 1h 42m San Francisco SFO 10:29 → SBA 11:52UA 1578 7h 42m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → ORD 10:25 → SFO 13:14UA 543 3h 39m San Francisco SFO 16:53 → SBA 18:15UA 639 9h 50m 98% 82%
AmericanDetails → ORD 05:18 → PHX 07:10AA 769 2h 49m Phoenix PHX 09:59 → SBA 11:51AA 2928 8h 33m 98% 81%
AmericanDetails → ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30AA 760 2h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:04 → SBA 11:39AA 1822 8h 39m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → ORD 14:33 → DEN 16:31UA 2803 3h 01m Denver DEN 19:32 → SBA 21:21UA 8145 8h 48m 96% 80%
UnitedDetails → ORD 07:30 → SFO 10:19UA 1116 3h 31m San Francisco SFO 13:50 → SBA 15:17UA 5464 · flown by SkyWest 9h 47m 99% 76%
UnitedDetails → ORD 16:12 → DEN 18:13UA 2769 1h 10m Denver DEN 19:23 → SBA 20:59UA 2479 6h 47m 87% 70%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON