Today looks like a normal day here: all 9 nonstops are 9–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today MQ 3660 ORD 15:21 → XNA 17:21 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest G7 4428 ORD 20:30 → XNA 22:19 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3660 Envoy	ORD 15:21	XNA 17:21	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
G7 4498 GoJet	ORD 09:01	XNA 10:58	11%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 3941 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 21:26	XNA 23:13	11%	3%	0.7%	87%
AA 3595 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 08:00	XNA 09:46	12%	2%	0.3%	90%
AA 3578 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 18:57	XNA 20:44	13%	3%	0.7%	96%
AA 4028 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 11:47	XNA 13:40	15%	4%	0.4%	78%
G7 4601 GoJet	ORD 12:25	XNA 14:13	16%	6%	0.6%	no record
G7 4399 GoJet	ORD 15:50	XNA 17:38	16%	3%	0.9%	no record
G7 4428 GoJet	ORD 20:30	XNA 22:19	16%	4%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON