Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3071 at 07:12 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 3071 ORF 07:12 → MCO 09:20 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3783 ORF 19:39 → MCO 21:59 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3071 Southwest	ORF 07:12	MCO 09:20	6%	2%	1.0%	no record
WN 2439 Southwest	ORF 09:54	MCO 11:57	6%	3%	1.2%	no record
F9 3783 Frontier Flight history →	ORF 19:39	MCO 21:59	22%	12%	6.8%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON