Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 14–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today PT 6046 ORF 12:55 → PHL 14:14 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest PT 6055 ORF 17:26 → PHL 18:39 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


PT 6046 Piedmont	ORF 12:55	PHL 14:14	14%	4%	0.6%	no record
PT 5949 Piedmont	ORF 15:46	PHL 17:08	16%	4%	0.6%	no record
PT 6055 Piedmont	ORF 17:26	PHL 18:39	18%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON