Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 19%, against 7% on a calm day. Safest: UA 468 at 07:00, 5%.

Safest bet that day UA 468 MCO 07:00 → IAH 08:35 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest WN 662 MCO 17:56 → HOU 19:20 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Weather 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 468 United Flight history →	MCO 07:00	IAH 08:35	5%	2%	0.8%	95%
WN 2871 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 07:21	HOU 08:35	6%	1%	0.9%	67%
UA 3919 United	MCO 01:06	IAH 03:00	6%	3%	0.9%	no record
WN 4967 Southwest	MCO 10:18	HOU 11:50	10%	2%	1.0%	no record
UA 2611 United Flight history →	MCO 09:10	IAH 10:45	11%	3%	0.9%	88%
UA 1493 United Flight history →	MCO 11:57	IAH 13:29	14%	3%	0.9%	95%
UA 2406 United Flight history →	MCO 14:06	IAH 15:40	22%	6%	1.2%	87%
UA 2456 United Flight history →	MCO 15:14	IAH 17:09	22%	6%	1.3%	89%worse than usual
F9 1417 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 13:46	IAH 15:19	22%	6%	1.6%	87%
WN 46 Southwest	MCO 15:25	HOU 16:41	30%	8%	1.9%	no record
UA 1872 United Flight history →	MCO 17:19	IAH 18:58	33%	14%	2.1%	66%
F9 3469 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 19:30	IAH 21:13	33%	14%	3.4%	76%
WN 662 Southwest	MCO 17:56	HOU 19:20	37%	16%	3.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON