Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 31 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 2562 at 06:23 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 2562 MCO 06:23 → BWI 08:43 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 2424 MCO 17:34 → DCA 19:59 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2562 Southwest	MCO 06:23	BWI 08:43	2%	1%	1.0%	no record
WN 8503 Southwest	MCO 08:23	BWI 10:43	3%	1%	1.0%	no record
WN 2563 Southwest	MCO 08:33	BWI 10:48	3%	1%	1.0%	no record
UA 2746 United	MCO 08:51	IAD 11:21	4%	2%	0.8%	no record
AA 2745 American Flight history →	MCO 06:57	DCA 09:20	5%	2%	1.2%	92%
F9 3274 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 06:30	BWI 08:54	5%	2%	2.1%	89%
F9 4230 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 07:59	IAD 10:33	7%	3%	1.3%	77%
WN 2568 Southwest	MCO 10:11	BWI 12:23	7%	2%	1.6%	no record
UA 1893 United Flight history →	MCO 09:37	IAD 11:55	8%	2%	0.9%	93%
B6 2024 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 08:44	DCA 11:00	9%	3%	1.2%	86%
DL 1003 Delta Flight history →	MCO 10:20	DCA 12:32	10%	3%	1.9%	83%
WN 2577 Southwest	MCO 10:29	DCA 12:39	10%	2%	1.3%	no record
WN 2564 Southwest	MCO 13:42	BWI 16:02	13%	4%	1.8%	no record
UA 1757 United Flight history →	MCO 12:34	IAD 15:03	13%	6%	1.3%	83%
WN 1802 Southwest	MCO 11:14	BWI 13:28	13%	3%	1.3%	no record
AA 2128 American Flight history →	MCO 11:32	DCA 13:49	16%	6%	1.6%	75%
WN 373 Southwest	MCO 16:03	BWI 18:22	18%	5%	2.3%	no record
WN 147 Southwest	MCO 14:57	BWI 17:14	18%	5%	2.1%	no record
F9 4004 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 11:48	BWI 14:25	18%	6%	2.1%	57%
DL 2729 Delta Flight history →	MCO 20:52	DCA 23:22	19%	12%	2.7%	70%
UA 390 United	MCO 18:17	IAD 20:41	22%	9%	1.8%	no record
F9 9436 Frontier	MCO 16:52	IAD 19:29	22%	7%	2.7%	no record
AA 1071 American	MCO 20:52	DCA 23:14	22%	13%	2.7%	no record
UA 1997 United Flight history →	MCO 19:05	IAD 21:30	22%	10%	1.9%	67%
WN 1745 Southwest	MCO 13:55	DCA 16:03	23%	6%	1.6%	no record
AA 958 American Flight history →	MCO 20:42	DCA 23:00	23%	14%	2.7%	58%
B6 2324 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 12:55	DCA 15:12	25%	8%	1.3%	59%
WN 777 Southwest	MCO 17:36	BWI 19:59	27%	10%	2.7%	no record
AA 1614 American	MCO 17:01	DCA 19:20	32%	16%	3.2%	no record
WN 2579 Southwest	MCO 19:49	DCA 21:57	33%	16%	2.7%	no record
B6 2424 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 17:34	DCA 19:59	35%	16%	2.3%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON