Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 15–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day QX 2362 PAE 18:05 → SFO 20:20 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 2139 PAE 08:19 → SFO 10:34 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


QX 2362 Horizon	PAE 18:05	SFO 20:20	15%	5%	1.6%	no record
QX 2096 Horizon	PAE 14:16	SFO 16:31	18%	4%	1.6%	no record
AS 2139 Alaska flown by Horizon Flight history →	PAE 08:19	SFO 10:34	19%	6%	3.9%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON