Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 459 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 3–19%.

Safest bet that day UA 459 PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest AS 1346 PDX 14:57 → DEN 18:21 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 459 United Flight history →	PDX 05:00	DEN 08:31	3%	2%	0.6%	97%
WN 3123 Southwest	PDX 06:48	DEN 10:17	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 2375 United Flight history →	PDX 08:50	DEN 12:24	5%	2%	0.6%	97%
UA 1429 United	PDX 10:36	DEN 14:32	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1411 United Flight history →	PDX 12:50	DEN 16:28	7%	3%	0.5%	88%
AS 684 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 07:03	DEN 10:36	7%	2%	0.6%	90%
WN 4156 Southwest	PDX 10:33	DEN 14:02	8%	2%	0.4%	no record
UA 1787 United Flight history →	PDX 16:15	DEN 19:51	9%	4%	0.5%	85%
WN 1698 Southwest	PDX 13:31	DEN 16:56	10%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 3124 Southwest	PDX 15:54	DEN 19:23	12%	3%	0.5%	no record
AS 1346 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 14:57	DEN 18:21	19%	3%	0.6%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON