Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 40% (calm day: 23%). Best bet: Alaska via Seattle, leaving 08:07, 7% on time.

Nonstops that day


SY 3037 Sun Country	PDX 04:49	FAI 08:08	10%	2%	2.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fairbanks on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fairbanks is 1 h behind Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	PDX 10:30 → ANC 13:22AS 775	3h 24m Anchorage	ANC 16:46 → FAI 17:58AS 1722	8h 28m	100%	85%
Alaska Details →	PDX 08:07 → SEA 09:04AS 376	2h 58m Seattle	SEA 12:02 → FAI 14:51AS 230	7h 44m	100%	73%
Alaska Details →	PDX 06:19 → SEA 07:17AS 499	2h 31m Seattle	SEA 09:48 → FAI 12:38AS 381	7h 19m	99%	68%
Alaska Details →	PDX 07:08 → SEA 08:05AS 427	3h 54m Seattle	SEA 11:59 → FAI 14:46AS 96	8h 38m	99%	68%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	PDX 08:07 → SEA 09:04AS 376	51m Seattle	SEA 09:55 → FAI 12:41AS 441	5h 34m	10%	7%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON