Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 2947 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–18%.

Safest bet that day DL 2947 PDX 06:30 → LAX 09:00 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AS 1391 PDX 20:24 → LAX 22:24 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2947 Delta Flight history →	PDX 06:30	LAX 09:00	6%	2%	0.7%	94%
AS 581 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 07:00	LAX 09:37	8%	3%	0.7%	90%
DL 2975 Delta Flight history →	PDX 10:53	LAX 13:18	10%	3%	0.6%	90%
AA 6290 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PDX 06:29	LAX 08:55	10%	5%	0.6%	85%
DL 2766 Delta Flight history →	PDX 13:25	LAX 15:47	11%	4%	0.6%	91%
AS 695 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 10:45	LAX 13:20	11%	3%	0.6%	88%
AS 278 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 17:37	LAX 20:09	12%	4%	0.6%	87%
AS 713 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 14:39	LAX 17:06	13%	4%	0.6%	86%
DL 2551 Delta Flight history →	PDX 17:37	LAX 20:00	13%	4%	0.7%	88%
AS 647 Alaska	PDX 13:59	LAX 16:05	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 1391 Alaska	PDX 20:24	LAX 22:24	18%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON