tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 490 Alaska PDX 07:09 MCI 12:37 11% 2% 0.6% no record
AS 225 Alaska PDX 11:54 MCI 17:20 15% 3% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 2 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270 2h 01m Salt Lake City SLC 10:34 → MCI 13:57DL 2882 6h 12m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359 2h 22m Minneapolis MSP 08:11 → MCI 09:44DL 3867 · flown by SkyWest 7h 11m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → PDX 06:00 → MSP 11:14DL 2369 2h 31m Minneapolis MSP 13:45 → MCI 15:14DL 1613 7h 14m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 1h 19m Denver DEN 09:50 → MCI 12:38UA 2159 5h 38m 96% 88%
UnitedDetails → PDX 00:08 → IAH 06:20UA 780 1h 33m Houston IAH 07:53 → MCI 09:59UA 2009 7h 51m 94% 85%
UnitedDetails → PDX 07:00 → ORD 13:13UA 2306 2h 39m Chicago ORD 15:52 → MCI 17:36UA 664 8h 36m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → PDX 13:45 → MSP 19:03DL 2167 2h 27m Minneapolis MSP 21:30 → MCI 22:58DL 1657 7h 13m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → PDX 06:35 → ATL 14:14DL 662 1h 06m Atlanta ATL 15:20 → MCI 16:30DL 1660 7h 55m 95% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → PDX 15:30 → SEA 16:38DL 4062 · flown by SkyWest 52m Seattle SEA 17:30 → MCI 23:00DL 2256 5h 30m 68% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON