Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


OO 3314 SkyWest	PDX 11:00	MSO 13:36	13%	7%	0.5%	no record
AS 2146 Alaska flown by Horizon Flight history →	PDX 10:55	MSO 13:27	13%	5%	1.2%	93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Missoula on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Missoula is 1 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270	2h 22m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:55 → MSO 12:35DL 4112 · flown by SkyWest	5h 50m	99%	94%
Delta Details →	PDX 09:45 → SLC 12:33DL 1203	3h 32m Salt Lake City	SLC 16:05 → MSO 17:45DL 3808 · flown by SkyWest	7h 00m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	PDX 17:14 → SLC 20:06DL 1244	2h 37m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:43 → MSO 00:17 +1DL 1824	6h 03m	99%	87%
Alaska Details →	PDX 06:19 → SEA 07:17AS 499	2h 52m Seattle	SEA 10:09 → MSO 12:38AS 2230 · flown by Horizon	5h 19m	99%	74%
Alaska Details →	PDX 08:06 → SEA 09:03AS 376	3h 05m Seattle	SEA 12:08 → MSO 14:35AS 660	5h 29m	100%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON