Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 16–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


QX 2490 Horizon	PDX 10:56	PAE 12:01	16%	6%	2.1%	no record
QX 2319 Horizon	PDX 10:49	PAE 11:46	20%	6%	2.1%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Everett on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	PDX 10:45 → LAS 13:11AS 757	3h 49m Las Vegas	LAS 17:00 → PAE 19:18AS 366	8h 33m	99%	83%
Alaska Details →	PDX 14:48 → SNA 17:19AS 264	1h 27m Santa Ana	SNA 18:46 → PAE 21:53AS 2116 · flown by Horizon	7h 05m	98%	80%
Alaska Details →	PDX 14:55 → SAN 17:29AS 1312	1h 53m San Diego	SAN 19:22 → PAE 22:38AS 2189 · flown by Horizon	7h 43m	99%	80%
Alaska Details →	PDX 10:45 → LAX 13:20AS 695	1h 23m Los Angeles	LAX 14:43 → PAE 17:39AS 2279 · flown by Horizon	6h 54m	97%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON