Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 2–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1718 PDX 06:53 → SJC 08:54 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 755 PDX 20:43 → SJC 22:24 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 1718 Southwest	PDX 06:53	SJC 08:54	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
OO 3001 SkyWest	PDX 17:41	SJC 19:36	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 694 Alaska	PDX 11:59	SJC 13:44	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2369 Southwest	PDX 16:07	SJC 17:51	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 755 Alaska	PDX 20:43	SJC 22:24	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 2080 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 07:15	SJC 09:09	4%	2%	3.8%	96%
AS 2113 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 17:40	SJC 19:32	19%	3%	0.0%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON