Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 1–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 3140 PDX 06:33 → SMF 08:13 · 1% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1709 PDX 10:39 → SMF 11:55 · 10% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 3140 Southwest	PDX 06:33	SMF 08:13	1%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 1601 Southwest	PDX 11:33	SMF 13:04	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
AS 1307 Alaska	PDX 14:41	SMF 16:12	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 1500 Alaska	PDX 17:59	SMF 19:32	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3142 Southwest	PDX 18:14	SMF 19:40	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
AS 1709 Alaska	PDX 10:39	SMF 11:55	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 2399 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 11:00	SMF 12:33	9%	1%	0.6%	91%
AS 2405 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 14:32	SMF 16:06	12%	0%	1.9%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON