Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 5882 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	PHL 16:15	CAE 18:07	13%	4%	0.8%	88%
PT 5855 Piedmont	PHL 09:58	CAE 11:53	14%	2%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHL 06:25 → ATL 08:28DL 1152	3h 32m Atlanta	ATL 12:00 → CAE 12:59DL 2944	6h 34m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	2h 52m Atlanta	ATL 10:11 → CAE 11:19DL 9972	6h 04m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	PHL 08:05 → ATL 10:11DL 1180	3h 54m Atlanta	ATL 14:05 → CAE 15:06DL 3193	7h 01m	99%	89%
American Details →	PHL 08:58 → ORD 10:38AA 2095	2h 43m Chicago	ORD 13:21 → CAE 16:16AA 4275 · flown by Envoy	7h 18m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	PHL 10:40 → ATL 12:49DL 1100	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 16:15 → CAE 17:21DL 3032	6h 41m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	PHL 14:32 → ATL 16:40DL 2279	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 18:53 → CAE 20:01DL 2193	5h 29m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	PHL 17:17 → ATL 19:29DL 1692	3h 10m Atlanta	ATL 22:39 → CAE 23:43DL 3029	6h 26m	97%	85%
American Details →	PHL 10:29 → CLT 12:12AA 847	1h 48m Charlotte	CLT 14:00 → CAE 14:55AA 5143 · flown by PSA	4h 26m	95%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON