Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 10 nonstops are 5–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 583 PHL 06:59 → DFW 09:40 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest F9 3985 PHL 06:02 → DFW 08:33 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 583 American Flight history →	PHL 06:59	DFW 09:40	5%	3%	0.6%	90%
AA 1751 American Flight history →	PHL 04:59	DFW 07:37	5%	3%	0.6%	92%
AA 3307 American	PHL 08:27	DFW 11:10	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 3326 American Flight history →	PHL 10:55	DFW 13:16	8%	3%	0.6%	76%
AA 415 American Flight history →	PHL 12:52	DFW 15:31	9%	4%	0.6%	73%
AA 402 American Flight history →	PHL 15:00	DFW 17:50	9%	4%	0.6%	68%
AA 2356 American Flight history →	PHL 16:22	DFW 19:09	10%	4%	0.6%	69%
AA 1115 American Flight history →	PHL 20:42	DFW 22:55	11%	3%	0.7%	69%
AA 2533 American Flight history →	PHL 18:20	DFW 20:27	12%	3%	0.7%	76%
F9 3985 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 06:02	DFW 08:33	13%	6%	1.0%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON