Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 8–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day PT 5808 PHL 22:14 → MDT 23:18 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest PT 6009 PHL 09:05 → MDT 09:59 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


PT 5808 Piedmont	PHL 22:14	MDT 23:18	8%	3%	0.8%	no record
PT 5843 Piedmont	PHL 18:02	MDT 18:52	9%	3%	0.8%	no record
PT 5807 Piedmont	PHL 17:52	MDT 18:46	9%	3%	0.8%	no record
PT 6100 Piedmont	PHL 10:37	MDT 11:31	11%	2%	0.8%	no record
PT 9975 Piedmont	PHL 07:04	MDT 07:59	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
PT 5951 Piedmont	PHL 13:07	MDT 14:01	11%	2%	0.8%	no record
PT 6009 Piedmont	PHL 09:05	MDT 09:59	13%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON