Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


OH 5227 PSA	PHL 11:01	MSN 12:52	9%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 5512 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 20:04	MSN 21:41	13%	8%	0.8%	70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Madison on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Madison is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHL 12:36 → DTW 14:20DL 2331	2h 29m Detroit	DTW 16:49 → MSN 17:13DL 5245 · flown by Endeavor	5h 37m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	PHL 09:30 → BOS 10:58DL 5845 · flown by Republic	2h 10m Boston	BOS 13:08 → MSN 15:03DL 5603 · flown by Republic	6h 33m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	PHL 10:40 → ATL 12:49DL 1100	1h 58m Atlanta	ATL 14:47 → MSN 15:51DL 2599	6h 11m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	2h 01m Atlanta	ATL 09:20 → MSN 10:22DL 2681	6h 07m	98%	90%
American Details →	PHL 08:58 → ORD 10:38AA 2095	3h 05m Chicago	ORD 13:43 → MSN 14:42AA 4038 · flown by Envoy	6h 44m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20DL 2791	2h 52m Minneapolis	MSP 10:12 → MSN 11:19DL 4102 · flown by SkyWest	6h 39m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	PHL 16:08 → ATL 18:32DL 2131	3h 00m Atlanta	ATL 21:32 → MSN 22:38DL 2144	7h 30m	99%	88%
American Details →	PHL 12:39 → ORD 13:58AA 1854	3h 32m Chicago	ORD 17:30 → MSN 18:34AA 3953 · flown by Envoy	6h 55m	97%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON