Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 4717 PHL 14:54 → SDF 17:00 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4335 PHL 20:44 → SDF 22:52 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 4717 Republic	PHL 14:54	SDF 17:00	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 4335 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PHL 20:44	SDF 22:52	8%	2%	0.7%	63%
AA 5915 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 09:31	SDF 11:47	19%	4%	3.6%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON