Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:05 am at Philadelphia)

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AA 5543 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 10:28	XNA 12:31	11%	4%	0.7%	80%
AA 5628 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 19:54	XNA 22:11	13%	6%	0.8%	75%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fayetteville/Springdale/ on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fayetteville/Springdale/ is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	PHL 07:05 → DFW 09:43AA 583	2h 46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:29 → XNA 13:52AA 3803 · flown by Envoy	7h 47m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	1h 09m Atlanta	ATL 08:28 → XNA 09:24DL 5339 · flown by Endeavor	5h 09m	96%	88%
Delta Details →	PHL 12:36 → DTW 14:20DL 2331	1h 46m Detroit	DTW 16:06 → XNA 17:25DL 4889 · flown by Endeavor	5h 49m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	PHL 10:40 → ATL 12:49DL 1100	2h 42m Atlanta	ATL 15:31 → XNA 16:26DL 5128 · flown by Endeavor	6h 46m	99%	88%
American Details →	PHL 06:00 → CLT 07:53AA 3139	2h 53m Charlotte	CLT 10:46 → XNA 12:02AA 5446 · flown by PSA	7h 02m	100%	88%
American Details →	PHL 07:20 → ORD 08:39AA 3074	3h 08m Chicago	ORD 11:47 → XNA 13:42AA 4028 · flown by Envoy	7h 22m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	PHL 16:50 → ATL 18:58DL 2131	3h 57m Atlanta	ATL 22:55 → XNA 00:08 +1DL 3747 · flown by SkyWest	8h 18m	99%	87%
American Details →	PHL 15:46 → ORD 17:30AA 470	3h 56m Chicago	ORD 21:26 → XNA 23:15AA 3941 · flown by Envoy	8h 29m	99%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON