tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Alaska via Portland, leaving 10:56, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 58% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 95 Alaska PHX 18:13 ANC 23:08 19% 3% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 1 h behind Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:50 → ORD 12:28UA 356 3h 42m Chicago ORD 16:10 → ANC 19:54UA 841 14h 04m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:59 → SEA 10:05DL 1570 3h 35m Seattle SEA 13:40 → ANC 16:25DL 928 10h 26m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553 2h 38m Minneapolis MSP 14:28 → ANC 17:28DL 411 11h 43m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → PHX 13:29 → DEN 16:24UA 709 2h 36m Denver DEN 19:00 → ANC 22:45UA 280 10h 16m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → PHX 09:42 → MSP 14:45DL 1047 3h 25m Minneapolis MSP 18:10 → ANC 21:00DL 377 12h 18m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → PHX 12:15 → SEA 15:25DL 2419 1h 59m Seattle SEA 17:24 → ANC 20:18DL 2367 9h 03m 99% 82%
AlaskaDetails → PHX 10:56 → PDX 13:43AS 511 1h 18m Portland PDX 15:01 → ANC 18:00AS 315 8h 04m 95% 82%
AlaskaDetails → PHX 12:44 → SEA 15:43AS 609 3h 17m Seattle SEA 19:00 → ANC 21:46AS 582 10h 02m 99% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → PHX 10:56 → PDX 13:43AS 511 48m Portland PDX 14:31 → ANC 17:24AS 1406 7h 28m 72% 60%
AlaskaDetails → PHX 16:32 → SEA 19:17AS 401 56m Seattle SEA 20:13 → ANC 22:55AS 769 7h 23m 58% 46%
AlaskaDetails → PHX 07:20 → SEA 10:29AS 645 56m Seattle SEA 11:25 → ANC 14:15AS 1432 7h 55m 67% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON