Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 768 at 06:14 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–14%.

Safest bet that day WN 768 PHX 06:14 → DAL 10:43 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4869 PHX 15:26 → DAL 19:42 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 768 Southwest	PHX 06:14	DAL 10:43	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 406 Southwest	PHX 08:17	DAL 12:36	8%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1304 Southwest	PHX 11:17	DAL 15:34	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 134 Southwest	PHX 13:56	DAL 18:08	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 733 Southwest	PHX 16:45	DAL 21:09	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 1765 Southwest	PHX 19:32	DAL 23:51	14%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 4869 Southwest	PHX 15:26	DAL 19:42	15%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON