Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 24 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3189 at 06:19 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 3189 PHX 06:19 → DEN 09:11 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2142 PHX 16:48 → DEN 19:46 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3189 Southwest	PHX 06:19	DEN 09:11	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 337 United Flight history →	PHX 06:00	DEN 08:52	4%	2%	0.6%	93%
WN 3194 Southwest	PHX 08:59	DEN 11:41	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 1599 United	PHX 07:51	DEN 10:50	7%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 3190 Southwest	PHX 07:22	DEN 10:09	8%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 597 United Flight history →	PHX 09:08	DEN 12:00	8%	3%	0.5%	86%
F9 1376 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 06:21	DEN 09:22	8%	3%	0.7%	88%
WN 227 Southwest	PHX 10:27	DEN 13:08	8%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 472 Southwest	PHX 11:12	DEN 13:57	9%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 709 United Flight history →	PHX 13:22	DEN 16:10	10%	3%	0.5%	87%
AA 2602 American Flight history →	PHX 08:26	DEN 11:16	11%	3%	0.6%	64%
UA 1615 United Flight history →	PHX 13:31	DEN 16:27	11%	3%	0.5%	75%
UA 280 United	PHX 15:25	DEN 18:13	11%	3%	0.5%	no record
OO 6351 SkyWest	PHX 12:58	DEN 15:49	13%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 935 Southwest	PHX 12:23	DEN 15:02	13%	2%	0.5%	no record
F9 4768 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 09:17	DEN 12:19	13%	5%	0.7%	85%
UA 624 United Flight history →	PHX 16:25	DEN 19:21	14%	3%	0.5%	76%
WN 3042 Southwest	PHX 13:15	DEN 15:52	14%	2%	0.5%	no record
F9 1820 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 20:50	DEN 23:50	14%	4%	0.7%	75%
WN 4783 Southwest	PHX 14:35	DEN 17:14	15%	2%	0.5%	no record
AA 1638 American Flight history →	PHX 18:55	DEN 21:40	15%	3%	0.6%	70%
WN 4661 Southwest	PHX 19:14	DEN 21:51	16%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 3192 Southwest	PHX 16:29	DEN 19:13	17%	3%	0.5%	no record
F9 2142 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 16:48	DEN 19:46	24%	5%	0.7%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON