Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Alaska via Seattle, leaving 14:38, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Everett on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Everett on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	PHX 14:38 → SEA 17:26AS 611	2h 48m Seattle	SEA 20:14 → PAE 20:52AS 9803	6h 14m	97%	75%
Alaska Details →	PHX 15:13 → SAN 16:35AS 2028 · flown by Horizon	2h 25m San Diego	SAN 19:00 → PAE 22:00AS 2189 · flown by Horizon	6h 47m	96%	65%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	PHX 16:32 → SEA 19:17AS 401	57m Seattle	SEA 20:14 → PAE 20:52AS 9803	4h 20m	70%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON