Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 19 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3247 at 07:21 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 3247 PHX 07:21 → SAN 08:39 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3251 PHX 16:27 → SAN 17:40 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 3247 Southwest	PHX 07:21	SAN 08:39	6%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 548 Southwest	PHX 08:14	SAN 09:31	8%	1%	0.7%	no record
AA 1793 American	PHX 07:23	SAN 08:49	9%	4%	0.7%	no record
AS 1708 Alaska	PHX 07:07	SAN 08:29	11%	2%	1.0%	no record
WN 456 Southwest	PHX 09:26	SAN 10:43	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 2122 American Flight history →	PHX 10:48	SAN 12:23	11%	3%	0.7%	81%
OO 3033 SkyWest	PHX 12:32	SAN 13:52	15%	5%	0.8%	no record
OO 3034 SkyWest	PHX 15:32	SAN 17:00	15%	5%	0.8%	no record
F9 1571 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 08:36	SAN 10:11	16%	6%	0.8%	78%
OO 3035 SkyWest	PHX 19:54	SAN 21:08	16%	5%	1.0%	no record
WN 366 Southwest	PHX 12:20	SAN 13:37	18%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 1951 American Flight history →	PHX 13:59	SAN 15:19	18%	5%	0.7%	68%
AA 480 American Flight history →	PHX 17:03	SAN 18:25	19%	4%	0.7%	73%
WN 4371 Southwest	PHX 13:52	SAN 15:09	20%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 3107 Southwest	PHX 19:52	SAN 21:10	22%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 4373 Southwest	PHX 19:42	SAN 20:58	23%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 3251 Southwest	PHX 16:27	SAN 17:40	25%	4%	0.7%	no record
AS 2045 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PHX 07:11	SAN 08:36	19%	5%	15.7%	81%
AS 2028 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PHX 15:13	SAN 16:35	50%	15%	0.0%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON