Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 928 at 05:44 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–15%.

Safest bet that day AA 928 PHX 05:44 → SBA 07:38 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1855 PHX 17:04 → SBA 18:49 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 928 American	PHX 05:44	SBA 07:38	5%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 3984 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 07:39	SBA 09:19	8%	2%	0.8%	96%
AA 2928 American Flight history →	PHX 09:59	SBA 11:51	10%	3%	0.8%	88%
AA 1855 American	PHX 17:04	SBA 18:49	15%	5%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON