Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 2645 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–15%.

Safest bet that day WN 2645 PHX 07:00 → SNA 08:19 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2454 PHX 11:05 → SNA 12:35 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2645 Southwest	PHX 07:00	SNA 08:19	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 2466 American Flight history →	PHX 07:40	SNA 09:08	10%	3%	0.6%	88%
WN 4380 Southwest	PHX 18:37	SNA 19:56	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3745 Southwest	PHX 09:27	SNA 10:46	11%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2154 Southwest	PHX 14:15	SNA 15:34	14%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 2463 American Flight history →	PHX 14:17	SNA 15:41	14%	3%	0.6%	78%
AA 2471 American Flight history →	PHX 18:03	SNA 19:32	14%	3%	0.6%	84%
WN 1586 Southwest	PHX 16:01	SNA 17:22	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1656 American	PHX 11:00	SNA 12:28	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2454 American Flight history →	PHX 11:05	SNA 12:35	16%	4%	0.6%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON