Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 3757 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 13:30	STS 15:46	9%	3%	0.9%	96%
AA 4114 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 10:12	STS 12:28	9%	3%	1.0%	69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Rosa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	PHX 08:25 → BUR 09:55WN 1506	1h 25m Burbank	BUR 11:20 → STS 12:53WN 1410	4h 28m	98%	84%
Alaska Details →	PHX 14:37 → SEA 17:38AS 611	2h 38m Seattle	SEA 20:16 → STS 22:06AS 1330	7h 29m	97%	80%
Alaska Details →	PHX 05:58 → SEA 08:56AS 605	2h 35m Seattle	SEA 11:31 → STS 13:34AS 1321	7h 36m	97%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	PHX 16:32 → SEA 19:17AS 401	59m Seattle	SEA 20:16 → STS 22:06AS 1330	5h 34m	70%	58%
Alaska Details →	PHX 07:20 → SEA 10:29AS 645	1h 02m Seattle	SEA 11:31 → STS 13:34AS 1321	6h 14m	73%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON