Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 25%, against 10% on a calm day. Safest: AA 3386 at 06:00, 9%.

Safest bet that day AA 3386 PNS 06:00 → MIA 08:49 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 3749 PNS 15:05 → MIA 17:59 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Weather 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3386 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PNS 06:00	MIA 08:49	9%	4%	2.1%	87%
AA 3719 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PNS 19:06	MIA 22:00	30%	12%	2.6%	87%worse than usual
MQ 3568 Envoy	PNS 13:54	MIA 16:52	30%	9%	2.1%	no record
AA 3749 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PNS 15:05	MIA 17:59	33%	10%	2.1%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON