Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2399 at 08:29 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–16%.

Safest bet that day WN 2399 PVD 08:29 → DCA 10:07 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5438 PVD 20:48 → DCA 22:28 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2399 Southwest	PVD 08:29	DCA 10:07	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
MQ 3410 Envoy	PVD 06:17	DCA 07:59	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 863 American	PVD 05:55	DCA 07:46	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 759 Southwest	PVD 17:22	DCA 18:54	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
OH 5023 PSA	PVD 08:52	DCA 10:33	11%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 2641 American	PVD 15:25	DCA 17:12	12%	4%	0.6%	no record
OH 5173 PSA	PVD 16:55	DCA 18:35	13%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 5619 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PVD 11:47	DCA 13:27	14%	4%	0.8%	71%
AA 5438 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PVD 20:48	DCA 22:28	16%	5%	0.9%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON