Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


UA 1188 United Flight history →	RDM 05:00	DEN 08:28	5%	3%	0.7%	88%
UA 2350 United Flight history →	RDM 13:14	DEN 16:42	11%	3%	0.7%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h ahead of Redmond). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RDM 05:05 → SLC 07:48DL 4004 · flown by SkyWest	2h 27m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:15 → DEN 11:47DL 1553	5h 42m	99%	91%
United Details →	RDM 13:49 → SFO 15:32UA 2262	3h 24m San Francisco	SFO 18:56 → DEN 22:44UA 2436	7h 55m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	RDM 12:15 → SLC 15:04DL 3727 · flown by SkyWest	3h 26m Salt Lake City	SLC 18:30 → DEN 20:01DL 1586	6h 46m	99%	86%
Alaska Details →	RDM 05:25 → PDX 06:15AS 2043 · flown by Horizon	48m Portland	PDX 07:03 → DEN 10:36AS 684	4h 11m	89%	81%
American Details →	RDM 14:40 → PHX 17:06AA 3929 · flown by Envoy	1h 49m Phoenix	PHX 18:55 → DEN 21:40AA 1638	6h 00m	96%	81%
Alaska Details →	RDM 13:05 → SAN 15:25AS 2415 · flown by Horizon	2h 06m San Diego	SAN 17:31 → DEN 20:48AS 1423	6h 42m	96%	80%
Alaska Details →	RDM 07:15 → SEA 08:28AS 2027 · flown by Horizon	3h 16m Seattle	SEA 11:44 → DEN 15:38AS 535	7h 23m	98%	69%
Alaska Details →	RDM 09:44 → SEA 10:57AS 2076 · flown by Horizon	2h 32m Seattle	SEA 13:29 → DEN 17:05AS 304	6h 21m	98%	67%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	RDM 09:44 → SEA 10:57AS 2076 · flown by Horizon	47m Seattle	SEA 11:44 → DEN 15:38AS 535	4h 54m	42%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON