Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 4036 at 06:13 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 4036 RDM 06:13 → SEA 07:40 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest QX 2063 RDM 08:00 → SEA 09:14 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 4036 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RDM 06:13	SEA 07:40	11%	7%	0.8%	89%
DL 4141 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RDM 19:25	SEA 20:48	11%	4%	0.7%	89%
QX 2267 Horizon	RDM 05:53	SEA 07:14	12%	6%	1.2%	no record
DL 3735 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RDM 13:27	SEA 14:50	13%	4%	0.7%	89%
QX 2170 Horizon	RDM 06:00	SEA 07:14	16%	6%	1.2%	no record
OO 3063 SkyWest	RDM 10:18	SEA 11:52	18%	9%	0.7%	no record
QX 2344 Horizon	RDM 18:05	SEA 19:21	25%	4%	0.8%	no record
AS 276 Alaska Flight history →	RDM 13:25	SEA 14:33	28%	4%	0.7%	78%
QX 2019 Horizon	RDM 07:30	SEA 09:04	30%	6%	1.2%	no record
QX 2063 Horizon	RDM 08:00	SEA 09:14	35%	6%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON