tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via Denver, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Chicago on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1819 United RNO 14:18 ORD 20:16 20% 6% 0.6% no record
UA 349 United RNO 14:12 ORD 20:07 22% 6% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Reno). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → RNO 13:57 → SFO 15:33UA 2279 3h 11m San Francisco SFO 18:44 → ORD 00:58 +1UA 1958 9h 01m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → RNO 05:50 → SFO 07:08UA 1954 1h 07m San Francisco SFO 08:15 → ORD 14:50UA 1568 7h 00m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → RNO 05:30 → DEN 08:47UA 225 2h 28m Denver DEN 11:15 → ORD 14:55UA 2865 7h 25m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → RNO 09:05 → SLC 11:40DL 3719 · flown by SkyWest 3h 00m Salt Lake City SLC 14:40 → ORD 18:57DL 2377 7h 52m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → RNO 13:41 → DEN 16:55UA 1534 3h 28m Denver DEN 20:23 → ORD 23:52UA 377 8h 11m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → RNO 11:03 → DFW 16:27AA 1911 3h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:36 → ORD 22:01AA 3790 · flown by Envoy 8h 58m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → RNO 13:04 → SLC 15:34DL 1595 1h 47m Salt Lake City SLC 17:21 → ORD 21:29DL 2413 6h 25m 96% 80%
DeltaDetails → RNO 07:00 → LAX 08:45DL 4106 · flown by SkyWest 2h 39m Los Angeles LAX 11:24 → ORD 17:35DL 2368 8h 35m 99% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → RNO 14:46 → SEA 16:43AS 601 1h 05m Seattle SEA 17:48 → ORD 23:59AS 538 7h 13m 72% 58%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON