tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: one nonstop, AS 729 at 08:08, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 729 Alaska RNO 08:08 PDX 09:27 10% 2% 0.7% no record
AS 2127 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record RNO 17:35 PDX 19:09 2% 0% 3.8% 98%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RNO 05:30 → SLC 07:52DL 1650 3h 23m Salt Lake City SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209 6h 40m 99% 93%
UnitedDetails → RNO 05:30 → DEN 08:47UA 225 2h 40m Denver DEN 11:27 → PDX 13:09UA 644 7h 39m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → RNO 17:35 → SLC 20:07DL 3732 · flown by SkyWest 2h 43m Salt Lake City SLC 22:50 → PDX 23:44DL 1373 6h 09m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → RNO 09:05 → SLC 11:40DL 3719 · flown by SkyWest 3h 37m Salt Lake City SLC 15:17 → PDX 16:09DL 1244 7h 04m 100% 90%
UnitedDetails → RNO 09:05 → DEN 12:21UA 347 1h 06m Denver DEN 13:27 → PDX 15:13UA 2455 6h 08m 96% 88%
UnitedDetails → RNO 05:53 → SFO 07:10UA 1954 3h 12m San Francisco SFO 10:22 → PDX 12:15UA 2624 6h 22m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → RNO 10:33 → LAX 12:13DL 4099 · flown by SkyWest 2h 06m Los Angeles LAX 14:19 → PDX 16:34DL 2551 6h 01m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → RNO 08:19 → SFO 09:31UA 755 3h 00m San Francisco SFO 12:31 → PDX 14:25UA 2851 6h 06m 98% 87%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON