Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1954 at 05:53 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–20%.

Safest bet that day UA 1954 RNO 05:53 → SFO 07:10 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 755 RNO 08:19 → SFO 09:31 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 29% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1954 United Flight history →	RNO 05:53	SFO 07:10	3%	3%	0.6%	93%
UA 1219 United	RNO 18:52	SFO 20:21	12%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 2279 United Flight history →	RNO 13:49	SFO 15:04	13%	6%	0.6%	66%
UA 755 United Flight history →	RNO 08:19	SFO 09:31	20%	6%	0.6%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON