tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: one nonstop, YX 3578 at 18:42, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
YX 3578 Republic ROC 18:42 EWR 20:12 9% 2% 0.7% no record
UA 4385 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record ROC 19:10 EWR 20:30 62% 38% 17.1% 38%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ROC 06:00 → ATL 08:10DL 1200 1h 55m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401 6h 21m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → ROC 06:20 → ORD 07:26UA 2008 1h 45m Chicago ORD 09:11 → EWR 12:22UA 2238 6h 02m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → ROC 09:55 → DTW 11:18DL 5240 · flown by Endeavor 2h 52m Detroit DTW 14:10 → EWR 15:54DL 2573 5h 59m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → ROC 07:14 → CLT 09:29AA 1485 1h 18m Charlotte CLT 10:47 → EWR 12:43AA 1697 5h 29m 95% 85%
AmericanDetails → ROC 06:32 → ORD 07:35AA 4441 · flown by Republic 2h 30m Chicago ORD 10:05 → EWR 13:12AA 2416 6h 40m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → ROC 18:15 → ATL 20:35DL 2047 1h 06m Atlanta ATL 21:41 → EWR 23:52DL 2527 5h 37m 91% 78%
UnitedDetails → ROC 06:10 → IAD 07:31UA 4578 · flown by GoJet 58m Dulles IAD 08:29 → EWR 09:55UA 2396 3h 45m 89% 78%
DeltaDetails → ROC 12:26 → ATL 14:35DL 2511 58m Atlanta ATL 15:33 → EWR 17:53DL 2340 5h 27m 92% 77%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON