tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: one nonstop, WN 1365 at 13:05, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1365 Southwest ROC 13:05 MCO 15:42 14% 6% 1.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ROC 06:20 → ORD 07:27UA 2008 3h 33m Chicago ORD 11:00 → MCO 15:03UA 2008 8h 43m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → ROC 06:00 → ATL 08:10DL 1200 1h 15m Atlanta ATL 09:25 → MCO 10:57DL 1658 4h 57m 97% 88%
AmericanDetails → ROC 06:05 → BOS 07:35AA 4806 · flown by Republic 1h 27m Boston BOS 09:02 → MCO 12:12AA 2720 6h 07m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → ROC 06:05 → PHL 07:32AA 5930 · flown by Piedmont 1h 29m Philadelphia PHL 09:01 → MCO 12:06AA 1333 6h 01m 95% 83%
UnitedDetails → ROC 06:10 → IAD 07:31UA 4578 · flown by GoJet 3h 47m Dulles IAD 11:18 → MCO 13:37UA 379 7h 27m 95% 83%
AmericanDetails → ROC 06:32 → ORD 07:35AA 4441 · flown by Republic 3h 46m Chicago ORD 11:21 → MCO 14:59AA 3293 8h 27m 100% 83%
AmericanDetails → ROC 07:14 → CLT 09:29AA 1485 2h 49m Charlotte CLT 12:18 → MCO 13:59AA 2117 6h 45m 98% 83%
JetBlueDetails → ROC 07:11 → JFK 08:40B6 1285 3h 35m New York JFK 12:15 → MCO 15:10B6 83 7h 59m 99% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON