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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via O'Hare, leaving 08:45, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Buffalo on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Buffalo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → RSW 08:45 → ORD 11:00UA 2347 3h 07m Chicago ORD 14:07 → BUF 16:50UA 580 8h 05m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → RSW 05:35 → ATL 07:19DL 1385 1h 51m Atlanta ATL 09:10 → BUF 11:11DL 1384 5h 36m 95% 85%
DeltaDetails → RSW 11:11 → LGA 14:00DL 379 2h 12m New York LGA 16:12 → BUF 17:43DL 5792 · flown by Republic 6h 32m 96% 83%
DeltaDetails → RSW 12:24 → JFK 15:30DL 2320 3h 33m New York JFK 19:03 → BUF 20:24DL 5250 · flown by Endeavor 8h 00m 99% 83%
JetBlueDetails → RSW 11:02 → BOS 14:19B6 266 3h 52m Boston BOS 18:11 → BUF 19:54B6 715 8h 52m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → RSW 10:48 → ATL 12:27DL 1089 1h 33m Atlanta ATL 14:00 → BUF 16:03DL 2266 5h 15m 94% 82%
DeltaDetails → RSW 17:49 → DTW 20:45DL 2559 2h 05m Detroit DTW 22:50 → BUF 23:58DL 978 6h 09m 95% 82%
AmericanDetails → RSW 07:45 → CLT 09:51AA 2241 3h 48m Charlotte CLT 13:39 → BUF 15:29AA 2442 7h 44m 96% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON