Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2241 at 07:47 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–18%.

Safest bet that day AA 2241 RSW 07:47 → CLT 09:52 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest AA 2018 RSW 16:02 → CLT 18:05 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2241 American Flight history →	RSW 07:47	CLT 09:52	6%	2%	2.1%	97%
AA 1781 American	RSW 11:15	CLT 13:17	9%	3%	1.8%	no record
AA 2018 American Flight history →	RSW 16:02	CLT 18:05	18%	5%	2.1%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON