Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: DL 2320 at 12:24 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20%.

Nonstops that day


DL 2320 Delta Flight history →	RSW 12:24	JFK 15:30	10%	4%	2.2%	78%
B6 1530 JetBlue Flight history →	RSW 16:55	JFK 19:49	20%	8%	2.3%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RSW 13:16 → ATL 15:05DL 1153	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 18:45 → JFK 21:29DL 2398	8h 13m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	RSW 06:45 → ATL 08:33DL 1361	2h 32m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → JFK 13:20DL 2380	6h 35m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	RSW 05:35 → ATL 07:19DL 1385	2h 25m Atlanta	ATL 09:44 → JFK 12:00DL 1034	6h 25m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	RSW 10:48 → ATL 12:27DL 1089	1h 28m Atlanta	ATL 13:55 → JFK 16:29DL 1575	5h 41m	94%	85%
American Details →	RSW 06:01 → DFW 08:05AA 1281	3h 41m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:46 → JFK 16:30AA 481	10h 29m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	RSW 14:32 → MSP 17:04DL 2400	3h 18m Minneapolis	MSP 20:22 → JFK 00:02 +1DL 2692	9h 30m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	RSW 10:38 → BOS 13:39DL 2474	3h 26m Boston	BOS 17:05 → JFK 18:42DL 5814 · flown by Republic	8h 04m	100%	83%
American Details →	RSW 07:45 → CLT 09:51AA 2241	1h 37m Charlotte	CLT 11:28 → JFK 13:22AA 374	5h 37m	94%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON