Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2347 at 08:44 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–24%.

Safest bet that day UA 2347 RSW 08:44 → ORD 10:58 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 2561 RSW 18:52 → ORD 21:01 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2347 United Flight history →	RSW 08:44	ORD 10:58	4%	2%	1.0%	94%
AA 2613 American Flight history →	RSW 06:00	ORD 08:26	5%	2%	2.1%	93%
AA 1007 American	RSW 08:16	ORD 10:36	6%	2%	2.2%	no record
UA 2494 United Flight history →	RSW 12:28	ORD 14:53	11%	5%	0.9%	89%
UA 2472 United Flight history →	RSW 13:54	ORD 16:09	13%	6%	0.9%	77%
UA 1495 United	RSW 16:30	ORD 18:45	18%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 2437 American Flight history →	RSW 11:56	ORD 14:14	18%	5%	2.1%	33%
AA 2561 American Flight history →	RSW 18:52	ORD 21:01	24%	9%	2.7%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON