Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 427 at 22:30 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; morning flights run 11–18%.

Safest bet that day UA 427 SAN 22:30 → EWR 06:53 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest UA 327 SAN 13:33 → EWR 22:15 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 427 United Flight history →	SAN 22:30	EWR 06:53	10%	3%	0.8%	84%
UA 1637 United	SAN 06:35	EWR 14:47	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1827 United Flight history →	SAN 22:34	EWR 06:42	11%	3%	0.8%	88%
AS 297 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 07:55	EWR 16:36	18%	3%	1.2%	81%
UA 327 United Flight history →	SAN 13:33	EWR 22:15	26%	7%	0.8%	79%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SAN 06:15 → SLC 09:21DL 1117	1h 08m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:29 → EWR 16:49DL 2033	7h 34m	95%	80%
United Details →	SAN 10:35 → ORD 16:52UA 1710	1h 04m Chicago	ORD 17:56 → EWR 21:04UA 2790	7h 29m	84%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON