tailodds FORECAST
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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 09:46, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Missoula on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 59% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Missoula on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Missoula is 1 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 09:46 → SLC 12:50DL 1177 3h 15m Salt Lake City SLC 16:05 → MSO 17:45DL 3808 · flown by SkyWest 6h 59m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → SLC 09:21DL 1117 1h 34m Salt Lake City SLC 10:55 → MSO 12:35DL 4112 · flown by SkyWest 5h 20m 97% 92%
DeltaDetails → SAN 17:01 → SLC 19:59DL 1210 2h 44m Salt Lake City SLC 22:43 → MSO 00:17 +1DL 1824 6h 16m 99% 87%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 06:50 → PDX 09:29AS 399 1h 26m Portland PDX 10:55 → MSO 13:27AS 2146 · flown by Horizon 5h 37m 96% 82%
UnitedDetails → SAN 12:33 → DEN 16:06UA 1565 3h 24m Denver DEN 19:30 → MSO 21:39UA 1092 8h 06m 98% 77%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 06:32 → SEA 09:11AS 709 2h 57m Seattle SEA 12:08 → MSO 14:35AS 660 7h 03m 97% 70%
UnitedDetails → SAN 06:25 → SFO 08:18UA 2830 3h 57m San Francisco SFO 12:15 → MSO 15:38UA 5422 · flown by SkyWest 8h 13m 100% 70%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 15:00 → SEA 17:52AS 685 2h 57m Seattle SEA 20:49 → MSO 23:10AS 1435 7h 10m 96% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SAN 06:32 → SEA 09:11AS 709 58m Seattle SEA 10:09 → MSO 12:38AS 2230 · flown by Horizon 5h 06m 71% 53%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 16:07 → SEA 18:38AS 574 56m Seattle SEA 19:34 → MSO 22:01AS 604 4h 54m 59% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON